It’s All in the Numbers: Acreage Tallies and Environmental Program Evaluation

Increasingly, performance measurement is being used to hold federal agencies accountable, represent environmental progress, and evaluate the effectiveness of environmental programs. The need to track measurable outputs has created a tendency to present programmatic progress solely by quantifiable data, despite the inherent complexity of natural resource management. Wetlands and fire management programs are two specific environmental arenas that have come to overemphasize the tracking of acreage numbers to validate existing policy direction. In both of these arenas, we find the definition and categorization of "countable" acres to be inconsistent and unreliable. We explore this systemic flaw for both wetlands and fire programs and describe its implications for environmental policy and natural resource management more broadly. We conclude with recommendations for improved performance measurement in these arenas.     

Effects of signals of disorder on fear of crime in real and virtual environments

Despite the fact that virtual environments are increasingly deployed to study the relation between urban planning, physical and social disorder, and fear of crime, their ecological validity for this type of research has not been established. This study compares the effects of similar signs of public disorder (litter, warning signs, cameras, signs of vandalism and car burglary) in an urban neighborhood and in its virtual counterpart on the subjective perception of safety and livability of the neighborhood. Participants made a walking tour through either the real or the virtual neighborhood, which was either in an orderly (baseline) state or adorned with numerous signs of public disorder. During their tour they reported the signs of disorder they noticed and the degree to which each of these affected their emotional state and feelings of personal safety. After finishing their tour they appraised the perceived safety and livability of the environment. Both in the real and in the simulated urban neighborhood, signs of disorder evoked associations with social disorder. In all conditions, neglected greenery was spontaneously reported as a sign of disorder. Disorder did not inspire concern for personal safety in reality and in the virtual environment with a realistic soundscape. However, in the absence of sound disorder compromised perceived personal safety in the virtual environment. Signs of disorder were associated with negative emotions more frequently in the virtual environment than in its real-world counterpart, particularly in the absence of sound. Also, signs of disorder degraded the perceived livability of the virtual, but not of the real neighborhood. Hence, it appears that people focus more on details in a virtual environment than in reality. We conclude that both a correction for this focusing effect and realistic soundscapes are required to make virtual environments an appropriate medium for both etiological (e.g. the effects of signs of disorder on fear of crime) and intervention (e.g. CPTED) research.     

大气环境数据分析预测方法对比研究

以西安市2006年9月27日至2008年5月3日每日的SO2平均浓度时间序列为例,应用时间序列分析对前555个数据进行拟合,得到合适的时间序列模型ARIMA(1,1,2);利用神经网络中的BP神经网络和RBF神经网络对同样的样本进行训练,用这三种方法对2008年4月4日至2008年5月3日的SO2日均浓度值进行了预测,并用同样的方法分析预测了同期PM10日均浓度值,最后比较了它们的预测效果。结果表明,利用这三种方法进行浓度预测都是可行的,其中RBF神经网络法的预测误差最小,效果最好。     

超高效气溶胶净化系统有效性现场检验研究

各类超高效气溶胶净化系统普遍存在的较为突出的问题是:缺乏系统工作有效性现场检测手段,难以判断系统防护是否失效。根据超高效滤料过滤特性和测试原理,并在分析了大气气溶胶对过滤效率测试影响的基础上,提出大气气溶胶背景下,基于粒数浓度测量和使用发生的高浓度单分散气溶胶作为实验气溶胶的净化系统防护有效性现场检验测试技术及系统组成,并进行了验证。     

Kosetice, Czech Republic--ten years of air pollution monitoring and four years of evaluating the origin of persistent organic pollutants

The regional observatory Kosetice is a central European background station. Unique continuous monitoring from 1988 on is held here. POP (persistent organic pollutant) concentration values of air samples from Kosetice taken between 1996 and 2005 were statistically processed. Values of Czech ambient air quality standards were not exceeded. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons reached two maxima, in 1996 and 2001-2002. Polychlorinated biphenyls concentrations reached the highest values in 1997 and 1998 and hexachlorocyclohexanes concentrations in 1998. DDTs, hexachlorobenzene and pentachlorobenzene were analysed as well. Long-range transport of pollutants between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated using the Potential Source Contribution Function hybrid receptor model. Indicated potential source areas of PCBs coincide with many well-known urban and industrialised areas, while the indicated potential source areas of HCHs and DDTs coincide with many agricultural and/or forested regions and the potential source areas of HCB comprise all land use types.     

应用后续确定性问题校正条件价值评估——以福建省鼓山风景名胜区非使用价值评估为例

条件价值(CV)法是评估环境与资源价值的重要手段,后续确定性问题可有效便捷地提高CV结果的有效性。应用10刻度量化表式后续确定性问题对鼓山风景名胜区非使用价值CV评估结果进行校正。问卷采用双边界二分式,面对面调查获得518份有效调查问卷。结果显示:具有正支付意愿的受访者,其付费加入"鼓山保护协会"的确定度呈正态分布,确定度的平均值为6.72;确定度与受访者的收入、受访者对鼓山的熟悉程度呈显著正相关;受访者对起始投标值敏感。当确定度门槛值取7或8时,正支付率从51.5%分别下降至27.8%或23.3%,而平均支付意愿分别从33.24元下降至19.74元或16.36元,采用后续确定性问题校正后CV结果下降了一半左右。     

Advancing injury and violence prevention through data science

Introduction: The volume of new data that is created each year relevant to injury and violence prevention continues to grow. Furthermore, the variety and complexity of the types of useful data has also progressed beyond traditional, structured data. In order to more effectively advance injury research and prevention efforts, the adoption of data science tools, methods, and techniques, such as natural language processing and machine learning, by the field of injury and violence prevention is imperative. Method: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Injury Prevention and Control has conducted numerous data science pilot projects and recently developed a Data Science Strategy. This strategy includes goals on expanding the availability of more timely data systems, improving rapid identification of health threats and responses, increasing access to accurate health information and preventing misinformation, improving data linkages, expanding data visualization efforts, and increasing efficiency of analytic and scientific processes for injury and violence, among others. Results: To achieve these goals, CDC is expanding its data science capacity in the areas of internal workforce, partnerships, and information technology infrastructure. Practical Application: These efforts will expand the use of data science approaches to improve how CDC and the field address ongoing injury and violence priorities and challenges.     

Studying crop sequences with CarrotAge,a HMM-based data mining software

We have developed a knowledge discovery system based on high-order hidden Markov models for analyzing spatio-temporal data bases. This system, named CarrotAge , takes as input an array of discrete data – the rows represent the spatial sites and the columns the time slots – and builds a partition together with its a posteriori probability. CarrotAge has been developed for studying the cropping patterns of a territory. It uses therefore an agricultural drench database, named Ter-Uti , which records every year the land-use category of a set of sites regularly spaced. The results of CarrotAge are interpreted by agronomists and used in research works linking agricultural land use and water management. Moreover, CarrotAge can be used to find out and study crop sequences in large territories, that is a main question for agricultural and environmental research, as discussed in this paper.     

PAH deposition to snow surface

The urban snowpack effectively acts as a collection device for atmospheric-deposited PAHs. When these PAHs are flushed out in a short time interval along with springtime snowmelt, these cause shockloading to receiving waters. In order to assess the PAH deposition and accumulation in urban snowpacks, a deposition survey of PAH for the winter months of 1991-92 from the city of Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada was undertaken. The results of the survey are interpreted in view of prevailing meteorology and various emission sources in the study area. The relative PAH deposition levels (to BaP) are compared with relative source emission fingerprints to examine consistency in sampling and analysis. While analyzing the PAH samples using the ASTM (1987) method, the problem of concentration levels being below the detection level was encountered. The ASTM method for PAH analysis was modified to enhance the detection limit of the PAHs by concentrating the PAH extract to very low volumes, on the order of 200-300 microL.